Weekly Update

Education Energy Group Weekly Update

Thank you for taking a look at the Energy Education Group Website.  We hope to provide information that is useful to schools.
 
On a weekly basis we will provide:
  • A brief market commentary (local and national as appropriate)
  • NYMEX for the day and a trend
  • Long Range National Weather Forecast from NOAA (Colder than normal weather in the Natural Gas consuming regions likely increases demand and price pressure)
Also we will feature the current utility PGA’s and monthly market gas price.
 
We have new first of the month prices this week.  Please check out the Utility Chart and NNG Data.

June 26, 2017

Nothing really interesting in Natural Gas.  Price dropped in the last couple of weeks based upon cooler temperatures.  However it still remains in the established range more towards the lower end. 

The interesting trade in the energy sector has been oil and as a by-product diesel fuel.  Oil has come off and tested the low target of $42/barrel and actually looks like it could break through and get back to the $40/barrel level.  For you diesel buyers, this is important because Dennis at Vantage RM is looking at an opportunity to buy and store diesel in the near future.  Be on the lookout for a report that says to buy and store.

CME (Henry Hub) Natural Gas Futures $/Dth:

Following Months (July) price of gas:

$2.938

Price of Gas

06/09/17

$3.034

Price of Gas

06/02/17

$3.002

Price of Gas

05/26/17

$3.255

Price of Gas

05/12/17

$3.409

Price of Gas

05/05/17

$3.263

Price of Gas

04/21/17

$3.102

Price of Gas

04/14/17

$3.239

Price of Gas

04/07/17

$3.310

     

Winter 17/18

$3.21

Down $0.07

Winter 18/19

$3.05

Down $0.06

     

CME (NY Harbor) Diesel Futures $/Gallon:

Following Months (July) price of diesel:

$1.381

Price of Diesel

06/09/17

$1.433

Price of Diesel

06/02/17

$1.484

Price of Diesel

05/26/17

$1.561

Price of Diesel

05/12/17

$1.489

Price of Diesel

05/05/17

$1.442

Price of Diesel

04/21/17

$1.554

Price of Diesel

04/14/17

$1.645

Price of Diesel

04/07/17

$1.641

 

Local First of the Month Markets:

 

 

 

June NNG Ventura

$2.94

 

 

May NNG Ventura

$2.79

 

 

April NNG Ventura

$2.82

 

     

 

Local First of the Month Markets:

 

 

 

June Chicago Citygates

$3.09

 

 

May Chicago Citygates

$2.92

 

 

April Chicago Citygates

$3.01

 

 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Cost)

Month

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$4.38

 $5.23

 $4.39

May

$4.12

 $4.99

 $3.97

April

$4.74

 $4.41

 $4.39

Liberty Utility's Cost of Gas

 

$4.829

             

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


June 2, 2017

The market had a good sell off this week.  We broke through strong support at $3.14 and are trading right around $3.00.  Dennis DeLaughter from  VantageRM believes that we are starting a downtrend that could test the $2.80 price levels.  The fundamental reason given is the lack of weather related demand as the forecast is calling for cooler temperatures the first two weeks of June.  Another interesting happening in these markets, this upcoming winter is starting to trade a lot closer to the winter of 18/19.  It’s still more expensive than next winter, but the prices are starting to converge.

Oil also had a good sell off this week.  There are reports of a cheating within the OPEC arrangement and that contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.  In addition, the market is expecting more and more OPEC countries to cheat with maybe the exception of Saudi Arabia.  That with the increased production in the United States and oil/diesel could be in for even lower prices.  The one thing that is keeping the market up, civil unrest in Venezuela.   If you buy diesel still at this time buy what you need and look to store at a later date.

CME (Henry Hub) Natural Gas Futures $/Dth:

Following Months (July) price of gas:

$3.002

Price of Gas

05/26/17

$3.255

Price of Gas

05/12/17

$3.409

Price of Gas

05/05/17

$3.263

Price of Gas

04/21/17

$3.102

Price of Gas

04/14/17

$3.239

Price of Gas

04/07/17

$3.310

     

Winter 17/18

$3.27

Down $0.22

Winter 18/19

$3.11

Down $0.02

     

CME (NY Harbor) Diesel Futures $/Gallon:

Following Months (June) price of diesel:

$1.484

Price of Diesel

05/26/17

$1.561

Price of Diesel

05/12/17

$1.489

Price of Diesel

05/05/17

$1.442

Price of Diesel

04/21/17

$1.554

Price of Diesel

04/14/17

$1.645

Price of Diesel

04/07/17

$1.641

 

Local First of the Month Markets:

 
 

June NNG Ventura

$2.94

 

May NNG Ventura

$2.79

 

April NNG Ventura

$2.82

     

Local First of the Month Markets:

 
 

June Chicago Citygates

$3.09

 

May Chicago Citygates

$2.92

 

April Chicago Citygates

$3.01

 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Cost)

Month

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

 

$5.23

 $4.39

May

$4.12

 $4.99

 $3.97

April

$4.74

 $4.41

 $4.39

Liberty Utility's Cost of Gas

 

$4.829

NOAA’s June Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


April 6, 2017

The energy markets have been strong since our last update.  This has been a seasonal move on natural gas and we will continue to watch the weather as the summer progresses.  There is value in the winter of 18/19 in locking in prices.  It’s a rare occurrence to have gas prices in the distant future less expensive than the near future. 

Important to note on the move in prices, about $0.10 of the upward price movement was due to rolling from the April Futures Contract to May Futures Contract.  So the net move from the last quote is more like $0.15.

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Cost)

Month

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$                4.77

 $          4.41

 $           4.39

March

$                4.21

 $          3.70

 $           4.08

February

$                4.61

 $          4.62

 $           4.50

Liberty Utility's Cost of Gas

 

$4.297

                

 

NOAA’s April Forecast:

A/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


March 10, 2017

The market continues to rise on seasonality (February is typically one of the lowest months for gas prices) and appears to be heading into a bull market.  The strength of the bull market shouldn’t be great due to the moderating temperatures and lack of demand the next couple of months.  Even though there is some cold weather in the MidWest and East, the 8-14 day forecast shows above average temperatures for the majority of the country.

Diesel continues to fall on increase US oil production.  Dennis Delaughter is advising that you buy what you need at this time.  The market should continue to fall and you will get a better opportunity to buy and store diesel fuel in the future.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                    Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                                 $2.968/Dth                                
Price of Gas 3-3-17                                                                                 $2.825 

Price of Gas 2-24-17                                                                               $2.61

Price of Gas 2-10-17                                                                               $3.039
Price of Gas 2-3-17                                                                                  $3.056                       

Price of Gas 1-27-17                                                                                $3.353
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                                $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                                $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                  $3.284
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

Winter 17/18                           $3.38/Dth Up $0.01 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.08/Dth Up $0.01 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (April) Nymex price of diesel:                            $1.5321/Gallon

Price of Diesel 3-3-17                                                                             $1.5918
Price of Diesel 2-24-17                                                                          $1.6422
Price of Diesel 2-10-17                                                                          $1.6675

Price of Diesel 2-3-17                                                                             $1.6603
Price of Diesel 1-27-17                                                                           $1.6201
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                          $1.6646
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                           $1.6628

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                             $1.6975

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of March: $2.44
NNG Ventura for the month of February $3.32
NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17

Chicago CityGates for the month of March: 2.63 
Chicago CityGates for the month February $3.40
Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$4.2107

$3.70

$4.0808

February

$4.6145

$4.62

$4.4964

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

 

NOAA’s March Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


March 3, 2017

The market raised a little this week after the big sell off.  Dennis DeLaughter provided a report for this upcoming summer and he doesn’t see a lot of risk to the upside in prices right now.  Fundamentally we have a lot of gas in the ground and weather for the next few weeks appears to be warmer than normal.  In addition, we are starting this summer almost a $1 higher than where we were last year at this point, so Dennis feels there isn’t a lot of room to move up in the short term. 

With regards to crude oil, which affects diesel fuel, US production has increased 500 barrels of oil a day in the last six months.  In addition, many oil companies are increasing their drilling budget this year.  So we should see those production numbers continue to increase and replace the OPEC production cuts.  This increase in production has not shown an increase in associated natural gas production, yet.  We will continue to watch those numbers.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                                 $2.825/Dth 

Price of Gas 2-24-17                                                                               $2.61

Price of Gas 2-10-17                                                                               $3.039
Price of Gas 2-3-17                                                                                  $3.056                       

Price of Gas 1-27-17                                                                                $3.353
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                                $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                                $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                  $3.284
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.37/Dth Up $0.17 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.07/Dth Up $0.05 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (April) Nymex price of diesel:                       $1.5918/Gallon
Price of Diesel 2-24-17                                                                         $1.6422
Price of Diesel 2-10-17                                                                          $1.6675

Price of Diesel 2-3-17                                                                             $1.6603
Price of Diesel 1-27-17                                                                           $1.6201
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                          $1.6646
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                           $1.6628

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                             $1.6975

    

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of February $3.32
NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17
NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11

Chicago CityGates for the month February $3.40
Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$4.6145

$4.62

$4.4964

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


February 24, 2017

The market has dropped significantly the last couple of weeks on unprecedented warm weather.  We can’t tell you happy we are to see some snow and cold the last couple of days, just because it still is February.  The good news for everyone is that the run up heading into January has completely sold off and we are down to much lower prices.

A couple of articles came out this week that has me concerned for next winter.  It bears watching over the next few months, because a lot of time will transpire between now and then and can alter all the data.  The first article talked about storage expectations heading into next winter.  With the increase in demand and supply staying steady, expectations are that we will head into next winter with the lowest storage level since 2008.  In addition, the second article mentioned that had weather not turned so warm and high prices destroyed demand for electric generation, we would have been short of supply this winter.  What this means, even though prices next winter are higher than where they were at this time last year, it becomes prudent to start layering fixed prices.  Buy some today and see what happens and then buy some later and so forth and so on.  In addition, the following winter 18/19 is an even better value to start the layering in process.    We saw what happened this year with an expectation of a cold January, prices will only run higher if it actually happens.

Diesel is still caught in the sideways trade.  A technical target is $1.60 and if it breaks through that number you should expect lower prices.  The recommendation from VantageRM at this time is to buy as you need your diesel fuel.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                              $2.61/Dth

Price of Gas 2-10-17                                                                               $3.039
Price of Gas 2-3-17                                                                                  $3.056                       

Price of Gas 1-27-17                                                                                $3.353
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                                $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                                $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                  $3.284
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

Winter 17/18                           $3.17/Dth Down $0.34 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.02/Dth Down $0.10 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of Diesel:                       $1.6422/Gallon
Price of Diesel 2-10-17                                                                         
$1.6675

Price of Diesel 2-3-17                                                                            $1.6603
Price of Diesel 1-27-17                                                                          $1.6201
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                          $1.6646
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                          $1.6628

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                            $1.6975

    

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of February $3.32
NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17
NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11

Chicago CityGates for the month February $3.40
Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$4.6145

$4.62

$4.4964

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


February 10, 2017

In the short run, the weather continues to call for warm temperatures and suppressed demand.  The next level of technical support is $3.00 and I would expect the market to test this number.   

 

Some interesting articles this week, EIA expects both an increase in gas fired generation and expansion of pipelines.  EIA is looking out two years but looking at current supply and demand numbers, gas fired power generation is down 3.1 BCF day versus last year.  As the price drops we will watch and see if that power generation kicks back up.    Regarding the pipelines, with the increase in renewables and gas fired electric generation it’s imperative that more pipelines are built.  Typically the supply isn’t located where demand is and therefore those pipelines are needed.  In addition, the largest natural gas field is the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, so pipelines are being built out of this region to meet the needs in the Northeast, Southeast and MidWest.

 

Oil is stuck in its sideways trade.  It’s funny looking at the WSJ Energy section as it talks about oil, one day it’s up for supply reasons and the next day it’s down for supply reasons.  Sometimes it happens all in the same day.  Therefore, I still believe the most interesting information on this market is that the banks and funds are the longest they have ever been.  This would lead you to believe that lower prices are coming in oil and Diesel.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                         

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                               $3.039/Dth
Price of Gas 2-3-17                                                                                  $3.056                       

Price of Gas 1-27-17                                                                                $3.353
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                                $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                                $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                  $3.284
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.51/Dth Up $0.06 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.12/Dth Up $0.03 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of Diesel:                       $1.6675/Gallon

Price of Diesel 2-3-17                                                                            $1.6603
Price of Diesel 1-27-17                                                                           $1.6201
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                          $1.6646
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                           $1.6628

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                             $1.6975

    

Local First of the Month Markets:

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Forecast:

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


February 3, 2017

A good drop on the first of the month local prices for natural gas.  Still these prices are much higher than last year’s prices, so if comparing last year to this year, expect this year’s bills to be higher. 

 

The market has fallen below the technical support of $3.10.  The fundamental reason for this is the weather forecast calling for above average temperatures for February and the next 8-14 days.  If the weather forecast is true, we have passed the industry standard day for a peak day.  We will see if there is carry through on these prices and hopefully this downtrend continues since January’s market set high.

The oil markets are basically flat, however the most interesting news here is that the funds (people with the money and move the markets) are the longest they have ever been in oil.  This sets up a market that could move to the downside quickly if they start to take profits or sell their long positions.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                               $3.056/Dth                       

Price of Gas 1-27-17                                                                                $3.353
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                                $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                                $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                  $3.284
Price of Gas 12-22-16                                                                            $3.632  

  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.45/Dth Down $0.16 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.098/Dth Down $0.02 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of Diesel:                  $1.6603/Gallon
Price of Diesel 1-27-17                                                                         $1.6201
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                          $1.6646
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                           $1.6628

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                             $1.6975

Price of Diesel 12-22-16                                                                         $1.6695

Price of Diesel 12-16-16                                                                         $1.6779
Price of Diesel 12-9-16                                                                           $1.6335

Price of Diesel 12-1-16                                                                           $1.6489
Price of Diesel 11-2-16                                                                          $1.4782

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of February $3.32
NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17
NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11

Chicago CityGates for the month February $3.40
Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$4.6145

$4.62

$4.4964

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

 

NOAA’s February Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


January 27, 2017

The short term weather forecast is calling for colder temperatures in the northeast for the 6-14 day range.  However, those forecast are not for extreme cold temperatures and the market hasn’t been effected by it much.  From a technical standpoint, we did have a reversal day to the upside.  There was no follow through on higher prices and therefore the market gave back all the gains it realized on Wednesday and Thursday.  Support is $3.10 and we will see if we can test those prices in the next couple of weeks.  Even though oil prices have increased and drilling is picking up once again, increased natural gas supply isn’t showing up, yet.  Demand has remained strong this winter, so we will need increased supply. 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                               

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:                        $3.353/Dth
Price of Gas 1-20-17                                                                              $3.335
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                              $3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                $3.284
Price of Gas 12-22-16                                                                            $3.632  

Price of Gas 12-16-16                                                                            $3.397
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                              $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                              $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                              $2.81                         

  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.61/Dth Up $0.03 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.11/Dth Down $0.01 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of Diesel:                 $1.6201/Gallon
Price of Diesel 1-20-17                                                                        $1.6646

 

 

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


January 20, 2017

The market is basically trading sideways right now.  The weather that was expected at the end of the month is coming to a lot of the country but not the Northeast so the market hasn’t run.  The next 8-14 should have it move into the Northeast and we will see if that causes some strength in the market.  Also, the February forecast is out and it’s calling for normal temperatures across the majority of the country.  So the cold hasn’t materialized and therefore we haven’t seen an increase in prices.  Dennis from VantageRM doesn’t see risk to the downside of the market so prices shouldn’t sell off a lot.  Support is at the $3.10/Dth level.

 

We still see value for customers that like to hedge in the 2019/20 market.  So if interested please call at 720-244-3713 and we can run a price for you.  EIA came out with a report that they expected production to increase and so does the market given the prices we have seen.  However, we haven’t seen the production numbers start to tick up yet.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                    

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:                        $3.335/Dth
Price of Gas 1-13-17                                                                              
$3.36

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                 $3.284
Price of Gas 12-22-16                                                                            $3.632  

Price of Gas 12-16-16                                                                             $3.397
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                               $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
 

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:   

Winter 17/18                           $3.58/Dth Up $0.01 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.12/Dth Same as last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of Diesel:                    $1.6646/Gallon
Price of Diesel 1-13-17                                                                            $1.6628

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


January 13, 2017

This market is all about weather and weather forecasts.  Warm weather moves in the market dumps and forecast for cold weather and the market runs.  We are seeing a lot of volatility on the day with moves of $0.10 to $0.15 one direction or another.  The current 8-14 day weather forecast shows colder weather in the western half the United States and above normal temperatures in the eastern half.  However, the market moved upward this week with expectation of cold weather the last week of January and early February.  We shall see.

I do want to point out that a lot of our larger customers are buying for both 18-19 right now.  The strategy they are employing is keeping costs relatively the same for two more years.  If you are interested please call your representative.

Oil has not changed, is OPEC really cutting production.  Some days the headlines are that everyone believes they are and the next day they don’t believe they are.  Trading in Oil effects Diesel, so that is why we talk about it.  One thing I do expect, that if OPEC truly does cut production, production in America can and will make up the difference.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:                         $3.36/Dth

Price of Gas 1-6-17                                                                                           $3.284
Price of Gas 12-22-16                                                                            $3.632  

Price of Gas 12-16-16                                                                             $3.397
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                               $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
 

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

Winter 17/18                           $3.57/Dth Up $0.10 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.12/Dth Up $0.06 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of Diesel:                    $1.6628/Gallon

Price of Diesel 1-6-17                                                                                      $1.6975

Price of Diesel 12-22-16                                                                        $1.6695

Price of Diesel 12-16-16                                                                         $1.6779
Price of Diesel 12-9-16                                                                           $1.6335

Price of Diesel 12-1-16                                                                           $1.6489
Price of Diesel 11-2-16                                                                          $1.4782
 

Local First of the Month Markets

NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17
NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25
Chicago CityGates for the month of November $2.81

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

November

$3.9224

$4.225

$4.0818

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

NOAA’s January Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


January 6, 2017

I hope everyone had a peaceful and relaxing holiday.  Since our last update the natural gas market has been both strong and week.  It traded higher through the holiday season and then first day in 2017 the price experienced an extreme drop.  This market is still buoyed by the weather and weather forecasts.  From a technical standpoint there could be a quick jump of $0.20 to $0.30/Dth, so we are not out of the woods yet. 

I also wanted to point out this week that we have a lot of our customers buying gas in 2018 and 2019.  These customers are locking in fixed prices for a number of reasons but one of the major reasons is that it keeps prices consistent for another two years.  Gas for both next winter and 2018/19 winter are cheaper than gas this winter.

The natural gas market has increased almost $2/Dth since last January.  Inside FERC Vent for January 2016 was $2.33/Dth and this year it’s $4.17/Dth.  This increase in price couple with a colder winter than what we experienced last year, you could or should see higher gas bills.  Please call your representative or myself if you have any questions or concerns, my number is 720-244-3713.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:                         $3.284/Dth
Price of Gas 12-22-16                                                                                      $3.632  

Price of Gas 12-16-16                                                                             $3.397
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                               $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                             $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

Winter 17/18                           $3.47/Dth Down $0.10 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.06/Dth Down $0.02 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of Diesel:                    $1.6975/Gallon

Price of Diesel 12-22-16                                                                                 $1.6695

Price of Diesel 12-16-16                                                                         $1.6779
Price of Diesel 12-9-16                                                                           $1.6335

Price of Diesel 12-1-16                                                                           $1.6489
Price of Diesel 11-2-16                                                                          $1.4782
Price of Diesel 10-28-16                                                                         $1.5709

Price of Diesel 10-21-16                                                                         $1.5684 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                           $1.586

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of January $4.17
NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of January $4.17
Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25
Chicago CityGates for the month of November $2.81

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$4.9291

$4.6030

$4.2245

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

November

$3.9224

$4.225

$4.0818

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

 

NOAA’s January Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


December 23, 2016

First and foremost, Happy Holidays to everyone and thank you for being a customer and a part of WoodRiver Energy.  May the challenges be light and the good times plentiful in 2017.  Most likely this is the last communication of the year as the weather forecast seem to be mild through the next couple of weeks.

The natural gas market had a big movement up on Wednesday with some follow through today.  The weather forecast actually came out milder than we expected so fundamentally there was no reason for the big move.  From a technical standpoint, the market did trade below $3.28 support early in the week and bounce strongly upwards from there.  I heard Dennis from VantageRM call it a potential short covering rally on thin trading.  Meaning that there weren’t a lot of participants in the market and someone had to buy gas moving the market up.  We will see when the Holidays are over and we get back to normal trading.   For now, it’s best to sit tight and let this market play out.

One piece of information that is interesting in the numbers below, winter of 2018/2019 is lower than 2017/2018.  Not just lower but significantly lower and with the big move up these prices didn’t move.  This signals that at these prices for both Natural Gas and Oil that supply is expected to increase.  As always we will continue to monitor that situation and advise if we start seeing those natural gas supply numbers increase.  In the meantime, natural gas supply has remained relatively constant and that is leading to the short term strength.  Oil on the other hand is seeing rig counts increase and American production increase in light of the OPEC planned cuts.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                             

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:                            $3.632/Dth  

Price of Gas 12-16-16                                                                             $3.397
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                               $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                             $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
  

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.57/Dth Up $0.08 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.08/Dth Up $0.01 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (January) Nymex price of Diesel:                       $1.6695/Gallon

Price of Diesel 12-16-16                                                                                 $1.6779

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


December 16, 2016

The 8-14 day weather forecast moderated and the market fell significantly on Monday.  This market is trading solely on weather right now, so watching the forecast is going to be important.  From a technical standpoint, we settled below a significant support at $3.47 and are now looking at support of $3.25.  If the weather forecast remains normal or mild than I would expect to see the market approach that number.  There are other technical indicators showing a softening to the market, as always we will see if they are right.

Even though it’s very cold right now, the  day market didn’t surge or do anything out of the ordinary.  So that too is a good sign that we have plenty of gas and resources to meet these extreme cold days.  As always we will watch and communicate anything that may go awry.

Oil has been fun to watch with all the OPEC talk.  Yesterday the price traded at $50 and bounced higher fairly quickly.  The good news on oil is that Rig Count is up and American Production is increasing.  So any curtailments by OPEC and state run oil company’s (Russia) should be offset by American Production.  Many articles are calling for the market to hit $60 to $65 a barrel and if so we would see a lot of American production at those levels.  As I said last week, I am skeptical that OPEC will actually live up to their commitments, but I could be wrong.

Please call with any questions, my number is 720-244-3713 and stay warm this next week.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                                                               

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:                            $3.397/Dth
Price of Gas 12-9-16                                                                               $3.744

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                             $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
   

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 17/18                           $3.49/Dth Down $0.06 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.07/Dth Sown $0.01 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (January) Nymex price of Diesel:                       $1.6779/Gallon
Price of Diesel 12-9-16                                                                                    $1.6335

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


December 9, 2016

Last week, we discussed the market and potential technical run up to the $3.80’s and $3.90’s.  Well, we haven’t quite made it that high on the gas price, but we are very close.  This market is buoyed by the short term weather forecast.  Dennis from VantageRM has set a resistance level at $3.80 and if the price closes above that we could see a run to $4.00. 

Regarding the weather forecast, it’s going to be frigid towards the end of next week.  We will be keeping an eye on the daily price and communicate anything important during the week.  We still have a lot of gas in the ground and production has maintained.  However, it’s something that bears watching and communicating if prices spike on the day.

Oil and Diesel fuel are trading up and down.  One day we believe the production freezes the next day we don’t.  OPEC is trying to get buy in from the non OPEC members and large production companies.  They are threatening to flood the market with oil if they don’t, so we will see what communication comes out of this.  Russia, btw, agreed to cut production by 300,000 barrels.  This is going to be a choppy market until more certainty if any certainty will come to this production freeze announcement.  We are not dealing with the most credible of sources. 

Please call with any questions, my number is 720-244-3713 and stay warm this next week.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:                            $3.744/Dth

Price of Gas 12-1-16                                                                                $3.51       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                             $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
   

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March   

Winter 17/18                           $3.55/Dth Up $0.08 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.08/Dth Up $0.03 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (January) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.6335/Gallon

Price of Diesel 12-1-16                                                                         $1.6489
Price of Diesel 11-2-16                                                                         $1.4782
Price of Diesel 10-28-16                                                                      $1.5709

Price of Diesel 10-21-16                                                                      $1.5684 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                        $1.586
 

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of December $3.11
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.73
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86

Chicago CityGates for the month of December $3.25
Chicago CityGates for the month of November $2.81
Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

December

$4.1898

$4.434

$4.2766

November

$3.9224

$4.225

$4.0818

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

Liberty Utilities cost of gas $4.354

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


December 1, 2016

Since our last update, the market started consistent and in the last couple of weeks showed considerable strength.  Cold weather forecast in the 8-14 day range and actually realizing some cold weather has caused this market to run.  Dennis DeLaughter from VantageRM stated that from a technical standpoint, if the market closed above $3.38 today, the technical indicators are predicting a price move into the $3.80/$3.90 range.  Barring any crazy trading in the last half hour the market should settle above $3.38, so we will see if the technical indicators hold true.  The weather forecast for the next two weeks is forecasted to be colder than normal across the country and that should buoy the market until it arrives or doesn’t.  Then we will look at the next forecast. 

Another very interesting note regarding natural gas, the United States for the first time since the 1950’s is a net exporter of natural gas.  As we have discussed the amount of gas being exported to Mexico has increased and now the LNG facility in the gulf is moving 1.5 BCF a day of natural gas to Europe and Asia.  This is a trend that we expect to continue as more LNG facilities are being built to export natural gas to foreign markets.  The good news regarding this information is that the proven reserves in the United States are vast and able to absorb the increase in demand.  With the higher prices in both gas and oil, we expect that the producers will start drilling again.

Regarding Crude Oil and Diesel, OPEC has reached an agreement to curtail production by approximately 1 million barrels of oil a day starting in January.  This is significant in that they reached an agreement and the market responded by increasing over $6 a barrel of oil since the announcement.  It remains to be seen if the reduction and or adherence to the deal comes to fruition, however it’s enough of an indicator to send the markets higher.  This is good news for exploration and production companies as they can and will drill at a profit and should absorb the cut by OPEC.  However, that will take some time 3-6 months and we will have to see how high this market can go in the next few months.  Regarding Diesel, it is not a time to buy and stockpile.  This market follows crude and with the increase, buy as needed for the time being.  Still too much uncertainty out in the market.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                        

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:                             $3.51/Dth       

Price of Gas 11-2-16                                                                                $2.81                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                             $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
Price of Gas 9-30-16                                                                                $2.902
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                  $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:        

Winter 17/18                           $3.48/Dth Up $0.29 from last quote.

Winter 18/19                           $3.05/Dth – First quote for this time period.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (January) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.6489/Gallon
Price of Diesel 11-2-16                                                                        $1.4782
Price of Diesel 10-28-16                                                                      $1.5709

Price of Diesel 10-21-16                                                                      $1.5684 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                        $1.586
Price of Diesel 9-30-16                                                                        $1.5244   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                          $1.4118

Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                          $1.4086

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.73
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75

Chicago CityGates for the month of November $2.81
Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

November

$3.9224

$4.225

$4.0818

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

NOAA’s December Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


November 3, 2016

The market has dropped since our last update.  Dennis DeLaughter from VantageRM stated that the primary reason is the buyers in the market were forced to liquidate their positions in the free falling market.  This can be due to profit taking or hitting stop losses on their trades.  However, it was a fast and sharp move to the downside and it has continued even into this week.  Usually, after the move there is a correction in the market to the upside when the buyers have been forced to sell.

 

The fundamentals of the market started the move to the downside.  The weather forecast continue to show above normal weather through the end of November and therefore demand continues to be off.  The long range forecasts predicted a warm fall and a late start to winter.  Production numbers actually picked up the BCF of gas that they lost for the first three weeks of November, so we will be watching to see when this sell off stops.

For Diesel, The market ran up yesterday based upon the news of the pipeline explosion.  However it dropped off today and Dennis from VantageRM believes that we could see a pull back to the $1.40/Gallon range.  Therefore, the advice is to buy Diesel as you need it right now.

Please note the change in the first of month price and new Alliant and Blackhills Prices.  Unfortunately, MidAmerican has not posted their November price of gas.  I will update upon my return. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Following Months (December) Nymex price of gas:                         $2.81/Dth                         
Price of Gas 10-21-16                                                                              $3.03

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                              $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
Price of Gas 9-30-16                                                                                $2.902
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                  $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

 

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:         

Winter 17/18                               $3.19/Dth Down $0.18 from last quote.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (December) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.4782/Gallon
Price of Diesel 10-28-16                                                                               $1.5709

Price of Diesel 10-21-16                                                                          $1.5684 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                           $1.586
Price of Diesel 9-30-16                                                                            $1.5244   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                              $1.4118

Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                              $1.4086

    

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.73
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75

Chicago CityGates for the month of November $2.81
Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

November

 

$4.225

$4.0818

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

 

NOAA’s November Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


October 21, 2016

NYMEX dropped this week on warm weather and strong storage injection.  The last couple of weeks production has been down about 1 BCF a day and with the strong storage injection I would presume that production has increased over the past week.  We will get that number next week and I will be able to verify that presumption.  Dennis DeLaughter from VantageRM (a technical trader) believes that we have set a short term top at $3.36 and should see softening in the market (lower prices) until winter comes.  The weather forecast have followed the long range forecast of a warm fall and the short term forecast seems to continue that trend.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of gas:                         $3.03/Dth

Price of Gas 10-14-16                                                                                      $3.28
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
Price of Gas 9-30-16                                                                                $2.902
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                  $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                                 $2.582

Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                                   $2.788

  Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

Winter 16/17                               $3.38/Dth Down $0.14 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.47/Dth Down $0.01 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.5709/Gallon

Price of Diesel 10-21-2017                                                                             $1.5684 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                                    $1.586
Price of Diesel 9-30-2016                                                                      $1.5244   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                             $1.4118

Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                             $1.4086

Price of Diesel 8-26-16                                                                                    $1.4892

Price of Diesel 8-19-16                                                                                    $1.526       

Price of Diesel 8-5-16                                                                                      $1.303   

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60

Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


October 14, 2016

Another big up week for NYMEX.  Storage came in below expectations and last week’s production number actually fell by a BCF a day.  The combination of the events moved the market higher.  In addition, I will be watching those production numbers to see if this is a new state or if they will increase again in the future. 

An interesting fact about Oil production, OPEC only makes up about a 1/3 of all oil production.  However, they are the low cost producer in the world and have an amazing ability to manipulate the market.  Also, oil fell this week on weak economic numbers from China decreasing demand.  As OPEC is threatening to freeze and curb production, it won’t matter if China and the world economy is slowing down and decreasing demand for oil.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of gas:                       $3.28/Dth
Price of Gas 10-7-16                                                                                $3.132
Price of Gas 9-30-16                                                                                $2.902
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                  $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                                 $2.582

Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                                   $2.788 

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:       

Winter 16/17                               $3.52/Dth Up $0.145 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.48/Dth Up $0.13 from last quote.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of Diesel:                $1.5684/Gallon 

Price of Diesel 10-7-16                                                                                    $1.586/Gallon
Price of Diesel 9-30-2016                                                                        $1.5244   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                             $1.4118

Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                              $1.4086

 Price of Diesel 8-26-16                                                                            $1.4892

Price of Diesel 8-19-16                                                                            $1.526       

Price of Diesel 8-5-16                                                                               $1.303

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60

Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


October 7, 2016

A lot of new information this week.  The utilities came out with their new 4th Quarter prices and we also have new local FOM prices.  Also an interesting historical fact I heard this week, markets will not trend 80% of the time, therefore most the time really nothing is going on.  This isn’t one of those weeks.

 

Oil trading continues to be dominated by the OPEC cut.  This will continue to dominate the trade for the next 4-5 weeks until OPEC does or does not curb production.  This will affect your cost of diesel fuel and gasoline at the pump. 

 

Natural gas has continued to remain strong.  Yesterday the market received bearish news yet the prices increased the last couple of days.  Dennis DeLaughter from VantageRM, this week stated that the natural gas market is consolidating and primed to move significantly higher if we get a cold winter.   The last couple of weeks I forwarded four long range weather forecasts and they have ranged from normal temperatures to colder than normal temperatures for the Northeast.  The Northeast’s weather is what matters for the market.

 

What this means for you, if you have locked in fixed prices in the past and have yet to do so, you should call your representative and lock in that fixed price for this upcoming winter.  If you are a longer term buyer of fixed price gas, next summer and 2018, now isn’t a bad time to start the layering in process.  The reason being, we are buying fixed price gas to eliminate uncertainty and we definitely have a lot of uncertainty right now.  Please call your representative to get that fixed price quote.

 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (November) Nymex price of gas:                       $3.132/Dth
Price of Gas 9-30-16                                                                                $2.902
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                  $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                                 $2.582

              Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                                   $2.788

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of Diesel:                  $1.586/Gallon
Price of Diesel 9-30-2016                                                                               $1.5244   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                             $1.4118

              Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                              $1.4086

              Price of Diesel 8-26-16                                                                            $1.4892

Price of Diesel 8-19-16                                                                            $1.526       

Price of Diesel 8-5-16                                                                               $1.303

    

Nymex Winter Strip Natural Gas– Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 16/17                               $3.375 Up $0.215 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.35 Up $0.14 from last quote.

 

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.86
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60

Chicago CityGates for the month of October $2.96
Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.8361

$4.294

$4.2245

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

 

NOAA’s October Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


September 30, 2016

The big news this week in the Energy sector was OPEC agreeing to production freezes.  The official announcement will be in November and the estimated cut is about 500,000 barrels of oil per day.  The oil market responded immediately to the news and jumped over $2 a barrel and is currently trading around $48 a barrel.  I take this announcement with a grain of salt, OPEC has been manipulating this market for over 5 decades and I am skeptical that the cuts will actually happen.  Iran is increasing production and has no desire to slow down, Iraq is already balking at the cuts and at the end of the day what is the benefit to OPEC to actually cut production.  If they cut production, the US and Russia will fill the void and OPEC will lose market share.  So the official announcement and agreement will come in 5 weeks and we will see if anything does actually come of it.  In the meantime, I would expect a volatile oil market with it trading on one rumor versus another rumor.

 

Natural gas has remained strong over the last couple of weeks.  Will have to wait for winter to see what kind of heating demand we have to move the market significantly higher or lower.  Enclosed is a link to another winter forecast, this one is from Accuweather.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/us-winter-forecast-frequent-snow-to-blast-northeast-freeze-may-damage-citrus-crop-in-south/ar-BBwJcq2?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (November) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.5244/Gallon   

Price of Diesel 9-9-16                                                                                      $1.4118

                Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                            $1.4086

              Price of Diesel 8-26-16                                                                             $1.4892

Price of Diesel 8-19-16                                                                            $1.526       

Price of Diesel 8-5-16                                                                               $1.303

Price of Diesel 7-22-16                                                                            $1.3463
Price of Diesel 7-15-16                                                                            $1.4108

Price of Diesel 7-8-16                                                                              $1.4099

Price of Diesel 7-1-16                                                                              $1.506

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Following Months (November) Nymex price of gas:                       $2.902/Dth
Price of Gas 9-9-16                                                                                           $2.887
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                                 $2.793

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                                 $2.582

Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                                   $2.788

Price of Gas 7-22-16                                                                                 $2.781
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                                                 $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                                                   $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                                                   $2.956

     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March:

               

Winter 16/17                               $3.16 Down $0.03 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.21 Down $0.03 from last quote.

 

 

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60
NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70

Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


September 15, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

In the last few weeks we have seen a big drop in gas price and then a subsequent increase.  This is all due to storage reports that come out Thursday morning and we saw a larger than expected injection, followed by a smaller than expected injection and this morning’s number was right on expectations.  This just leads to the statement that has been made that we are in a sideways market and we will have to wait for the winter to get a direction.  I just don’t like this market, as a case can be made for prices to fall and a case can be made for prices to increase.  I believe that is why we have seen the volatility we have the last few weeks and it typically is just going sideways.

Diesel Market Overview

With regards to diesel fuel, the oil markets long term appear to be weak, however in the short term we could get a spike.  OPEC threatened a production freeze and that is still on the table supposedly, however I just don’t see them cutting production to prop up prices.  OPEC is the low cost producer and therefore they can withstand lower prices of oil and maintain their market share.  Therefore, I would just expect them to threaten with cuts or freezes and not follow through with them.  What this means for buying diesel is that you buy what you need as you need it right now and wait for another time to stockpile.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (October) Nymex price of Diesel:        $1.4118

Price of Diesel 9-2-16                                                                      $1.4086

Price of Diesel 8-26-16                                                               $1.4892

Price of Diesel 8-19-16                                                             $1.526       

Price of Diesel 8-5-16                                                                $1.303

Price of Diesel 7-22-16                                                              $1.3463
Price of Diesel 7-15-16                                                             $1.4108

Price of Diesel 7-8-16                                                                 $1.4099

Price of Diesel 7-1-16                                                                 $1.506

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                           

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:             $2.887/Dth
Price of Gas  9-2-16                                                                          $2.793

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                 $2.582

Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                   $2.788

Price of Gas 7-22-16                                                                 $2.781
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                                 $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                                   $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                                   $2.956

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March:

Winter 16/17                               $3.19 Up $0.05 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.24 Up $0.01 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60
NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70

Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

NOAA’s 8-14 day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


September 2, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural gas prices decreased this week as the storage build was a little higher than expected.  In addition, with the tropical storm hitting Florida instead of the production zone of the gulf, that too curtails demand until the storm passes.  I believe we are still range bound and wouldn’t expect a major move one direction or the other in the next couple of weeks.

Diesel Market Overview

Dennis from VantageRM, still sees the Diesel market lower from here, so the recommendation is to buy what you need for the time being.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (October) Nymex price of Diesel:         $1.4086/Gallon

Price of Dioesel as of 8-26-16                                                       $1.4892

Price of Diesel as of 8-19-16                                                    $1.526       

Price of Diesel as of 8-5-16                                                     $1.303

Price of Diesel as of 7-22-16                                                   $1.3463
Price of Diesel as of 7-15-16                                                   $1.4108

Price of Diesel as of 7-8-16                                                     $1.4099

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                     $1.506

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:             $2.793/Dth

Price of Gas 8-26-16                                                                 $2.871
Price of Gas 8-19-16                                                                 $2.582

Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                   $2.788

Price of Gas 7-22-16                                                                 $2.781
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                                 $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                                   $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                                   $2.956

     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March:

Winter 16/17                               $3.14 Down $0.10 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.23 Down $0.01 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.75
NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60
NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70

Chicago CityGates for the month of September  $2.81
Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.6421

$4.135

$4.1063

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

NOAA’s September Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


August 19, 2016

The market has fallen since our last discussion with a very good drop today.  The weather is starting to moderate and even though there are still some hot spots out there, it’s not as hot as it was in June and July.  Natural gas for electric generation has decreased and led to a softening in the market.

Last discussion, Dennis DeLaughter at VantageRM sent out a buy alert for Diesel if you had the ability to store.  If you haven’t bought don’t do it now, prices have increased over 15% since that write up.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (September) Nymex price of Diesel:    $1.526       

Price of Diesel as of 8-5-16                                                           $1.303

Price of Diesel as of 7-22-16                                                   $1.3463
Price of Diesel as of 7-15-16                                                   $1.4108

Price of Diesel as of 7-8-16                                                     $1.4099

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                     $1.506

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Following Months (September) Nymex price of gas:          $2.582/Dth

                Price of Gas 8-5-16                                                                           $2.788

Price of Gas 7-22-16                                                                  $2.781
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                                  $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                                     $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                                     $2.956   

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March:              

Winter 16/17                               $3.04 Down $0.20 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.17 Down $0.11 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60
NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88

Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80
Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


August 5, 2016

A lot of new information this week with changes in the first of the month price as well as new utility prices.  For those customers on MidAmerican, there are new Monthly Metered Transport Fees.

It’s been a volatile couple of weeks in the natural gas market.  The market started down and then last Thursday 7-28 saw a big move up in natural gas prices.  Every Thursday is a storage report and the numbers came in significantly lower than expectations signaling strong demand.  The numbers show this increase in power generation with an increase in demand of 3.7 BCF a day from the previous week.  This weeks report showed a withdrawal of storage (very odd for the summer time) however the market didn’t move with this odd occurrence due to the expectation of a withdrawal.  The good news is that weather forecasts are moderating and prices are basically flat from the last report.  We shouldn’t see a follow through in prices to the upside unless we get hurricane’s disrupting supply or very cold winter forecasts.  We will be watching both of those for you. 

Changes in the MidAmerican MMT distribution rates that will be reflected on your invoices (Swing Service Fee and Weekend Service Rider are combined on our Invoices).

Effective August 2, 2016:

Administrative Fee change from $14.62 to $12.28 per meter per month

Swing Service Fee change from $0.091 to $0.125 per Dth

Weekend Service Rider change from $0.035 to $0.034 per Dth

Buy Alert on Diesel – Dennis DeLaughter at VantageRM has stated that now is a safe time to buy some diesel.  He sees that the market could drop a little, however if you can buy and store it maybe worthwhile for your organization.  Prices have fallen due to the oversupply of oil.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (August) Nymex price of Diesel:           $1.303/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 7-22-16                                                         $1.3463
Price of Diesel as of 7-15-16                                                   $1.4108

Price of Diesel as of 7-8-16                                                     $1.4099

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                     $1.506

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:  $2.788/Dth

Price of Gas 7-22-16                                                        $2.781
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                  $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                     $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                     $2.956
     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March:               

Winter 16/17                               $3.24 Up $0.02 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.28 Up $0.04 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Markets:

NNG Ventura for the month of August $2.60
NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
 

Chicago City Gates for the month of August $2.67
Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80
Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Gas Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.9539

$3.057

$2.9365

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

NOAA’s August Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


July 22, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

Earlier this week, the market tested the technical support of $2.65 and bounced significantly off that number.  It’s currently trading $0.13 higher than support and we are having a strong up day today.  From a fundamental standpoint, the storage report this week was lower than expectations and there is forecasted hot weather on the coasts.  We still see this as a sideways market with upper resistance at $2.95.

Diesel Market Overview

Diesel on the other hand has continued to fall.  VantageRM is recommending that you buy as needed and wait for an opportunity to store at lower prices.  With the increase production in crude, best to watch the market and wait for another opportunity to buy and store if possible.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (August) Nymex price of Diesel:           $1.3463/Gallon
Price of Diesel as of 7-15-16                                                         $1.4108

Price of Diesel as of 7-8-16                                                     $1.4099

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                     $1.506

Price of Diesel as of 6-24-16                                                   $1.4607

Price of Diesel as of 6-17-16                                                   $1.4694

Price of Diesel as of 6-10-16                                                   $1.533 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                     $1.505

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:  $2.781/Dth
Price of Gas 7-15-16                                                        $2.688

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                     $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                     $2.956
Price of Gas 6-24-16                                                  $2.658
Price of Gas 6-17-16                                                  $2.611
Price of Gas 6-10-16                                                  $2.591

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                    $2.439     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.22 Up $0.04 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.24 Down $0.05 from last quote.

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


July 15, 2016

For the first time in a while US crude oil production rose last week.  Dennis from VantageRM and others in the industry have been talking about the increase in investment in the fields and this is the first sign that this is taking place.  Crude oil topped out at around $52 a barrel and that appears to be a new resistance level being set.  For those that have to buy Diesel fuel the increase in investment and subsequent drop in Crude, trading around $45 a barrel is good news.  Diesel follows crude and more supply should mean lower prices than what we have experienced the last couple of months.

This is a natural gas e mail and how does this relate to natural gas.  In a number of fields, natural gas is a by-product of oil production.  So with the increase in oil production we may (I haven’t seen it yet) see an increase in natural gas production and supply.  If so, this should mean no follow through on the increase in June into July and this fall.  Weather forecast are still hot across the country and therefore that hasn’t changed.  Were technically in Hurricane Season and that is the wildcard in this market the next 3 months.  A major hurricane in the gulf could be an issue for gas prices.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (August) Nymex price of Diesel:           $1.4108/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 7-8-16                                                           $1.4099

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                     $1.506

Price of Diesel as of 6-24-16                                                   $1.4607

Price of Diesel as of 6-17-16                                                   $1.4694

Price of Diesel as of 6-10-16                                                   $1.533 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                     $1.505

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:  $2.688/Dth

Price of Gas 7-8-16                                                     $2.801 
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                     $2.956
Price of Gas 6-24-16                                                  $2.658
Price of Gas 6-17-16                                                  $2.611
Price of Gas 6-10-16                                                  $2.591

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                    $2.439     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.18 Down $0.07 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.29 Down $0.01 from last quote.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


July 9, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

The market had a good sell off this week and according to Dennis at VantageRM is starting to show signs that we could see this downtrend continue.   From a technical standpoint, price support is $2.65.  From a fundamental standpoint, temperatures have seemed to moderate a little and therefore demand isn’t as high or expected to be as high as originally thought.  The news is Bearish this week and we will see if there is follow through to this down market in the next week.

Diesel Market Overview

Also, the news is bearish on diesel as well.  We had a good sell off on both Crude Oil and Diesel this week.  Dennis at Vantage RM has been talking about both of these markets and the strength they have had is searching out a top.  At the top, investment will pick up again and both of the markets have appeared to make that top.  Also investment has started to pick up again in the fields.  This may have started a downward trend and the next support is $1.30 for Diesel.  The recommendation is still buy what you need and wait to stockpile as this market falls.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (August) Nymex price of Diesel:           $1.4099/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 7-1-16                                                           $1.506

Price of Diesel as of 6-24-16                                                   $1.4607

Price of Diesel as of 6-17-16                                                   $1.4694

Price of Diesel as of 6-10-16                                                   $1.533 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                     $1.505

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:  $2.801/Dth
Price of Gas 7-1-16                                                     $2.956
Price of Gas 6-24-16                                                  $2.658
Price of Gas 6-17-16                                                  $2.611
Price of Gas 6-10-16                                                  $2.591

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                    $2.439

Price of Gas 5-27-16                                                  $2.172
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116

     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.25 Down $0.09 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.30 Same as last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of July $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91

Chicago CityGates for the month of July $2.80
Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94
Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

July

$3.732

$3.218

$2.6382

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


June 24, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

The market ended the week up a little, however the good news is that it is trading off the highs from earlier this week.  There has been a break in the weather forecast causing some weakness to the market.  The analyst still believe that we are experiencing a seasonal high and that market should trade off in the next few weeks.

Diesel Market Overview

Diesel ended up basically flat for the week.  However, Brexit is the big news that will dominate this market in the coming weeks.  Typically a strong dollar means lower oil and commodity prices and a strong dollar is expected after the vote to leave the EU from yesterday.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (July) Nymex price of Diesel:                 $1.4607/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 6-17-16                                                         $1.4694

Price of Diesel as of 6-10-16                                                   $1.533 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                     $1.505

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (July) Nymex price of gas:       $2.658/Dth
Price of Gas 6-17-16                                                        $2.611
Price of Gas 6-10-16                                                  $2.591

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                    $2.439

Price of Gas 5-27-16                                                  $2.172
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.18 Up $0.04 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.22 Up $0.04 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94
Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


June 17, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

One thing I want to point out in natural gas prices this week, even though we have seen price increases the last couple of weeks, the overall price of natural gas is well below the five year average and is currently towards the low end  of gas prices.

The market remained relatively flat this week and are testing highs. Dennis Delaughter with VantageRM and another analyst this week in reviewing the market believe that we are experiencing a seasonal up trend in the market and that we should see softness in the coming weeks.   Last week, I mentioned power generation from natural gas and wanted to see the increase when the temperatures were hotter.  That power generation demand increased by .5 BCF a day, so not a huge increase but not small either. 

Diesel Market Overview

Diesel traded off this week and actually maybe signaling a downtrend in the market.  Still not a time to buy or stock up, but some good news in this market.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (July) Nymex price of Diesel:                 $1.4694/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 6-10-16                                                         $1.533 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                     $1.505

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Following Months (July) Nymex price of gas:        $2.611/Dth
Price of Gas 6-10-16                                                        $2.591

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                    $2.439

Price of Gas 5-27-16                                                  $2.172
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995    

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.14 Down $0.07 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.19 Down $0.09 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94
Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


June 10, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

Once again prices in Natural Gas increased this week.  The Thursday storage report came in well below expectations and the market responded by going up $0.15 per Dth yesterday.  When looking at Supply and Demand data, Supply is down .7 BCF per day meanwhile Demand has increased 3.8 BCF per day from last year.  A 4.5 BCF day swing from last year is a significant difference in the data.  In addition, gas used for power generation increased from the week ending May 20th from 23.6 BCF per day to 29.8 BCF per day to the week ending June 3.  It was warm last week but definitely got hot this week, so I will be very interested in that number next week.  As we have talked about, underlying demand has increased meanwhile supply has remained relatively flat.

Diesel Market Overview

Regarding Diesel this week, the oil markets remain strong and are testing new highs.  Nothing is changing in this market right now, buy what you need in the short term and wait to store diesel for a better buying opportunity.

 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (July) Nymex price of Diesel:                 $1.533/Gallon 

Price of Diesel as of 6-3-16                                                      $1.505

Price of Diesel as of 5-27-16:                                                  $1.50

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (July) Nymex price of gas:        $2.591/Dth

Price of Gas 6-3-16                                                           $2.439

Price of Gas 5-27-16                                                   $2.172
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.21 Up $0.16 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.27 Up $0.21 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94
Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


June 3, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

Natural gas prices ran this week.  The reason given is a change in weather forecasts.  The expectation is that we are moving from an El Nino (Warm Sea Surface Pacific Temperatures) to a La Nina (Cooler Seas Surface Pacific Temperatures).  La Nina is characterized by a colder than normal winter across the northern part of the country.  In addition, La Nina is also characterized by a stronger hurricane season.  Therefore, the expectation of demand is increased and potential for supply disruptions due to hurricanes is increased.  That is the long range forecast.  In the short term forecast, things are changing from a cooler wetter forecast to a hotter and dryer forecast.  This too is indicative of an increase in demand. 

The interesting story this week was from NERC (North American Energy Reliability Corp) warning that the long run dependency on natural gas as a single generating source leads to grid reliability risk.  The concern that they have is that we have built the house first without the foundation.  Many natural gas fired electric generating power plants and renewable generating facilities (natural gas is the back generating capacity when the wind doesn’t blow and sun doesn’t shine) have been built without a significant increase in interstate pipeline and storage facilities being built to serve those facilities.    The natural gas delivery systems and electric generation have become increasingly intertwined and growing, therefore the risk of outages is increased due to ability to deliver natural gas.  Short term they don’t see much of a risk.

At the end of the day, gas prices are still below historical averages, but there are risks in the marketplace that bear watching.

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (July) Nymex price of Diesel:                   $1.505/Gallon

Price of Diesel as of 5-27-16:                                                        $1.50/Gallon

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (July) Nymex price of gas:     $2.439/Dth

Price of Gas 5-27-16                                                        $2.172
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

     

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $3.05 Up $0.07 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.22 Up $0.03 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of June $1.88
NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73

Chicago CityGates for the month of June $1.94
Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.03

$2.74

$2.2942

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

 

NOAA’s June Forecast:

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


May 31, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

The natural gas futures contract switched from June to July deliveries and that accounts for the increase.  Although the price looks like it increased, it was actually a very soft week for natural gas prices.  Prices fell due to the lack of demand as temperatures haven’t really increased yet.  The market is still waiting to determine its direction based upon the weather and expected demand.  Only the west appears to be looking at warm weather in the short term forecast with the majority of the country below normal.   Last week we showed the June/July/August forecast and it was calling for above normal temperatures in the population centers of the country.

Diesel Market Overview

Diesel is approaching a top in prices and actually traders are looking for a reason to be on the sell side of the market.  Therefore, the same holds true as last week, only buy what you need in the short term and look to fill storage if possible at a later date. 

NYMEX Diesel Information:

Following Months (July) Nymex price of heating oil:          $1.50/Gallon

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Natural Gas Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Following Months (July) Nymex price of gas:     $2.172/Dth
Price of Gas 5-20-16                                                 $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                 $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                 $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $2.98 Up $0.09 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.19 Up $0.11 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63

Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


May 20, 2016

Natural Gas Market Overview

The big change this week was NOAA’s long range weather forecast.  Last month NOAA was predicting the whole country to be above normal with Northeast being much above normal.  Their latest forecast (enclosed below) calls for the majority of the country being above normal, swath over the center of the country being normal temperatures.  This forecast could be completely wrong and there are analyst out there still calling for a much above normal summer.  However, traders make decisions to buy and sell based upon this report and this latest change is definitely bearish news in the market.

Diesel Market Overview

Also added this week is diesel fuel.  Many of our customers buy both natural gas and diesel fuel so we decided to add this to our report.  Diesel right now is following the run up in Crude Oil prices and according to Dennis Delaugher at VantageRM, Crude is searching for the a significant resistance level.  Meaning that once this rally in Crude stops, it will set the high end of the range that we would expect to see for some time.  Dennis’ recommendation for Diesel fuel is to buy as needed and not look to buy and store.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (June) Nymex price of gas:      $2.055
Price of Gas 5-13-16                                                        $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                 $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

 

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $2.89 down $0.04 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.08 down $0.04 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63

Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

 

NOAA’s June – July – August Forecast.

/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif


May 13, 2016

MidAmerican Rate Change.  On 4-20-16 MidAmerican has implemented a new rider, Capital Investment Charge.  Luckily this fee is only $0.39 per month.  So your invoices from WoodRiver and MidAmerican will contain this new line item fee. 

New First of the month utility and market prices.

The market is still basically sideways, not going up or down too much.  Not a lot of risk in the short term markets.

Many times people show storage numbers to give an indication of supply and demand and the direction of the market.  I have chosen only to talk about storage every so often as the week to week numbers themselves don’t really mean much to customers.  Right now we have record amounts of gas in storage and prices are towards historical lows.  That makes sense, however this week we received a very bullish storage report and the market dropped $0.09 the last two days.  So the overall trend in storage is important not the week by week numbers. 

To delve a bit deeper into storage numbers, a bullish storage report would only indicate what has been discussed in the past.  Supply has stagnated and is actually starting to decline while baseline demand is starting to pick up.  In the short term this doesn’t pose much a risk, however in the long run prices could start to increase.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Following Months (June) Nymex price of gas:      $2.116

Price of Gas 4-29-16                                                 $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                 $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
 

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                               $2.93 down $0.10 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                               $3.12 down $0.08 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of May $1.91
NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63

Chicago CityGates for the month of May $2.04
Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.1903

$3.517

$2.1396

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast.


April 29, 2016

Next week there will be no report as I will be out of the office on Friday.  I will however send out a report on Monday May 9th as we will have new first of the month prices and new Utility prices.  In addition, in the near future look for an invitation for a webinar.  The purpose of this webinar will be to explain why I add what I add to this report and what it means.

The market NYMEX switched from May deliveries to June deliveries and that is why the prices look like we gained this week. However the market did soften from the previous week but nothing significant.  It appears we are still in the sideways market and will wait to see what weather is going to be this summer.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Following Months (June) Nymex price of gas:      $2.164

Price of Gas 4-22-16                                                 $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                 $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                   $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                 $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                  $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                  $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                  $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                    $2.032          

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.03 up $0.02 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.20 up $0.08 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28

Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 22, 2016

Market moved up $0.21 per Dth this week.  From a technical standpoint, the market broke through the high end of the sideways market.  Meaning that we should see prices move higher and the next resistence would be at $2.33.  Also, the market is strengthening from a fundamental standpoint.  We have been talking about an increase in gas demand from electric generation and production stabilizing/decreasing.  Well,  EIA came out with a report this week that they are predicting record gas demand from power generation.  One new wrinkle to the report, industrial demand (new fertilizer & chemical plants) is also increasing and they project a 2.7% increase there in 2016 and 2.2% increase in 2017.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                      

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:      $2.129

Price of Gas 4-15-16                                                  $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                    $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                  $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                  $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                  $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                  $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                  $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                    $2.032          

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.01 up $0.22 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.12 up $0.11 from last quote

 

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28

Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast.

 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 15, 2016

The market has been down, then up and now down again.  $1.85 seems like a strong support as we have moved both above and below $1.95 and quite frankly we are just in a sideways market.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that natural gas supply will drop by 491 Million Cubic Feet of Gas a day from April production to May production.  This will not have an impact on the short term market as there isn’t the extreme demand in April and May that you have in the winter and summer.  However, if accurate, now we have baseline increases in demand for power generation and exports as well as decreases in supply.  When looking through past updates, the market has actually factored this in as we have seen our winter months (NYMEX Winter Strip) continue to gain strength while the following months NYMEX have remained weak.

MidAmerican made the Wall Street Journal committing to more wind generation for the state of Iowa.  MidAmerican has a goal of generating 85% of their electricity using wind currently they are at 59%.  Meanwhile this project will increase the total state’s production of wind generation to 40% from 31%.  That is the highest percentage of any other state in the union and in absolute terms Iowa is the second largest state in regards to wind generation.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information                                                                                                                                                                       

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:      $1.912

Price of Gas 4-8-16                                                    $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                  $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                  $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                  $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                  $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                    $2.032          

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.

Winter 16/17                                                               $2.79 same as last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.01 same as last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28

Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 8, 2016

New first of the month local price for April gas.  Basically the same cost as last month.  New Utility rates and not unexpected Alliant lowered their cost significantly and MidAmerican raised their cost of gas.  Now basically all the Iowa utility cost of gas are within the same range. 

The national natural gas market price increased a little this week.  There isn’t much going on right now and the market is basically in a sideways trading range.  If it breaks through the $1.95 support that was quoted last week, the next support will be $1.85 and this is considered major support.

Last week, we mentioned something about natural gas fired electric generation and watching the weather to see if we have increased demand.   Season to date, natural gas demand has increased an additional 2.8 BCF a day for power generation.  This increase in demand has been masked in the national market due to the warm weather and decrease in demand from residences and commercial customers.  In addition, to this power generation increase, exports to Mexico have increased 1.2 BCF a day.    

Base demand is increasing, meanwhile production has stagnated.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:      $1.995  

Price of Gas 3-25-16                                                  $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                 $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                  $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                  $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                  $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                    $2.032          

 

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.79 Up $0.05 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.01 Up $0.04 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of April $1.73
NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28

Chicago CityGates for the month of April $1.89
Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.5079

$3.508

$3.7653

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

 

NOAA’s April Forecast.

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


April 1, 2016

Next week we will have new Utility Prices and First of the Month Prices. 

We have switched over to the May contract on NYMEX.  From a technical trading perspective $1.95 is a strong support number (people will buy gas when the price hits $1.95).  People who trade on the technicals are your speculators, funds and large banks and therefore that number becomes very important.  They have a lot of money and can move the market.  There has been no move on the fundamentals, production has stagnated and demand is off in the spring time. 

Included is the 3 month summer NOAA prediction which is calling for a hot summer across the country.  This is important because of all the gas fired electric generation, it’s clean and cheap to burn natural gas. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:     $1.951 
Price of Gas 3-18-16                                                  $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                  $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                    $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                  $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                  $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                  $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                    $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                             $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                             $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                             $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                               $2.44

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.74 Up $0.10 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.97 Up $0.04 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33

Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

 

NOAA’s 90 day forecast.

/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif


March 18, 2016

The short covering rally continued in the natural gas market this week.  Still not a lot of risk of price increases in the next couple of months, but something to start watching are the long range forecasts for the summer.  Hot temperatures in the population centers of our country could provide extra demand for electric generation.

The most interesting article this week was about crude oil.  The International Energy Agency states that last year 800,000 barrels of oil a day are unaccounted.  The oil maybe in transit, in storage or it may not exist at all.  It’s difficult to get a 100% accurate number of supply and demand in oil.  Many traders believes that it doesn’t exist at all and therefore the prices responded by going above $40 per barrel. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:      $1.894

Price of Gas 3-11-16                                                        $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                           $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                        $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                        $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                        $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16                                                           $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                    $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                    $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                    $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                      $2.44

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.63 Up $0.04 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.93 Sam as last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33

Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


March 11, 2016

The Iowa Utilities Board voted unanimously to grant a hazardous waste permit to the Bakken Pipeline.  In addition, the IUB gave the pipeline the right to claim eminent domain.  This pipeline will carry 500,000 barrels of oil from South Dakota to Chicago.  There are still many hurdles before this gets built (lawsuits will surely be filed), however this was a big step for the pipeline.

The market was up this week based upon technical trading and short covering.  This means that the speculators in the market are buying natural gas and causing the price to increase.  The short term fundamentals in the market are still the same, weather forecast continues to call for warm weather for the east and supply is maintaining.   Dennis Delaughter at VantageRM believes that this market could run up another $0.05 to $0.10 based upon this technical and short covering rally.

Also, something to point out, natural gas prices in the short term are very weak.  There isn’t a lot of risk the next couple of months, April and May.  However, if you look at the winter strips, the market is valuing natural gas at a much higher price in the future.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                     $1.827
Price of Gas 3-7-16                                                                   $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                                 $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                                 $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                                 $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16:                                                                  $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                             $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                             $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                             $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                               $2.44

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.69 Up $0.12 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.93 Up $0.13 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33

Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


March 7, 2016

The market was down a little from the last quote.  It has traded in this range as no new information is in the market right now.  The weather continues to be warm and forecasted to be warm.  In addition, we have a lot of production in relation to demand.  Short term prices are weak and will continue to be weak until production drops or demand picks up.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                 $1.691  
Price of Gas 2-25-16                                                                 $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                                 $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                                 $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16:                                                                  $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                             $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                             $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                             $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                               $2.44

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.57 Up $0.13 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.83 Up $0.17 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for month of March $1.63
NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33

Chicago CityGate for month of March $1.85
Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$3.0381

$4.849

$4.3403

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

 

NOAA’s March forecast

/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


February 26, 2016

Same old story, the gas market continues to drop on an oversupplied situation.  It was another $0.10 this week.  Our analyst expects there to be a bit of a bounce on this market as prices have dropped very far and fast in a month.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                       $1.705
Price of Gas 2-19-16                                                                        $1.804 
Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                                        $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16:                                                                         $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                                    $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                                    $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                                    $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                                      $2.44

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.44 Down $0.06 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.66 Down $0.08 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32

Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

 

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

February 19, 2016

The natural gas market dropped $0.14/Dth the last couple of days on the complete lack of demand.  On the supply and demand front we had two significant events this week:

The first was a record level of production at 73.1 BCF/Day last week even in this low price environment.The second was Energy Information Association (Department of Energy) predicted that March will be the first month that we will start seeing domestic production decline.

In the short term, the weather keeps getting warmer and there is a lot of supply out there.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                  $1.804 

Price of Gas 2-12-16                                                            $1.966

Price of Gas 2-3-16:                                                             $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                        $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                        $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                         $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                           $2.44
 

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.50 Down $0.13 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.74 Down $0.12 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32

Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

NOAA’s February Temperature Outlook

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&ik=0594583aef&view=fimg&th=152fb634d9d8aa3c&attid=0.1&disp=emb&attbid=ANGjdJ-KpIdIDeNIRaxXaUW8cFxQePsWbye6BXJ0p8zRWwjv9eqmEV340PZ2GyGDFWQeNAOGSMZLLQySHJ-QMgI5vIcKHnZ9lFklN6QXkozGiGdH8R3IK1NbIfT5TF8&sz=w1080-h1140&ats=1455916538703&rm=152fb634d9d8aa3c&zw&atsh=1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


February 12, 2016

Not a lot going on in the gas markets.  We are still caught in a sideways market that is trending a little lower.  Nothing has changed with regards to the fundamentals so we should continue to see this trend. 
 
NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                        $1.966
Price of Gas 2-3-16:                                                                 $2.032          
Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                            $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                           $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                            $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                              $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                          $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                          $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                          $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                            $2.17
Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                          $2.191

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.63 Down $0.05 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.86 Down $0.05 from last quote.

Displaying image002.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 


February 3, 2016

The market dropped significantly this week, even traded below $2.00’s for a short stint yesterday.  The reason given is a change in weather forecast being warmer than previous thought.  From a fundamental standpoint, there is a lot of supply out there and prices are going to remain weak until demand picks up.  Some things that have been mentioned in the past that will effect demand, exports and electric generation.  In January, electric generation increased demand by 2.4 BCF a day over last January.  Exports were meant to get a shot in the arm early this year, but the LNG export terminal in the gulf got delayed until March.  This terminal could ship up to 2 BCF a day of domestic natural gas overseas.  

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas 2-3-16:    $2.032          

Price of Gas 1-29-2016                                                           $2.308
Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                           $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                            $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                              $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                          $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                          $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                          $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                            $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                          $2.191

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.68 Down $0.09 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.91 Down $0.05 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of February $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32

Chicago CityGate for the month of February $2.32
Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

February

$3.7696

$4.679

$4.3247

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

NOAA’s February Temperature Outlook

Displaying image001.gifDisplaying image001.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif


January 28, 2016

The natural gas market switched contracts to March and was up $0.14 per Dth today.  The reason given is twofold, there was a large storage withdrawal yesterday and the weather forecast is calling for cold weather next week in the East.  The 8-14 day forecast is included.   

The other news this week has been the chatter regarding OPEC cuts in production.  Oil prices have traded up due to this news and is over $33 a barrel. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:               $2.308

Price of Gas 1-22-2016                                                           $2.139
Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                            $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                              $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                          $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                          $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                          $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                            $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                          $2.191

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.77 Up $0.02 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.96 Unchanged from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28

Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

 


January 22, 2016

The market is relatively unchanged this week.  Production/supply has stagnated for the last few months.  There hasn’t been any growth but by the same token there hasn’t been a loss in production.  The main driver in these low prices is the lack of demand.  That should continue, the 8-14 day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures in the large gas consuming states.  All the news our there is bearish and unless something unexpected happens, we should see this market test the lows. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:             $2.139

Price of Gas 1-15-2016                                                       $2.104
Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                         $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                     $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                     $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                     $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                        $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                     $2.191

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.75 Up $0.05 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.96 Up $0.03 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28

Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


January 15, 2016

The market experienced a good sell off this week ending over $0.30 down.  The 8-14 day forecast has changed calling for warmer than normal temperatures across the country.  It’s best to continue to watch this market and see if it approaches the low’s again. 

The big news this week is that Oil dropped below $30 per barrel.  There continues to be a glut of oil in the world market.  The Wall Street Journal published an article this week, stating that they expect to have 30% of the Oil and Gas production companies file for bankruptcy.  Production will continue to be strong until they do file bankruptcy as they are trying to meet their interest payments.  Once they file for bankruptcy they will stop drilling.  As a consumer we will have to watch these events and its effects on oil and natural gas production.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:             $2.104

Price of Gas 1-8-2016                                                                $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                          $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                          $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                          $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                            $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                          $2.191

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.70 down $0.17 from last quote.
Winter 17/18                                                               $2.93 down $0.12 from last quote.

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28

Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast

 


January 8, 2016

New Utility prices and New First of the month gas prices.

The market traded up a bit on a change in weather forecast.  The Weather Channel this week changed their forecast for the second half of the month for the MidWest and East from above normal temperatures to average temperatures. 

Dennis Delaughter with VantageRM gave a presentation this week about commodity prices.  Specific to the energy complex this is what he thought would happen.  Oil is going to trade below $30 a barrel and that gas should retreat to test the $2.00 per Dth level again.  Long term, he expects gas to trade between $2 and $3 per Dth.  So right now with the market at $2.44, his recommendation is to hold tight.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:             $2.44
Price of Gas 12-30-2015                                                          $2.345
Price of Gas 12-16-2015                                                          $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                          $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                            $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                          $2.191
Price of Gas 11/13/2015                                                          $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                            $2.377        

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.87 up $0.07 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.05 up $0.06 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of January $2.33
NNGVentura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28

Chicago CityGate for the month of January $2.57
Chicago CityGate for the month of December $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$3.7864

$4.539

$4.1112

December

$3.6706

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast

 
 

December 18, 2015

First and foremost, have a safe and Happy Holiday Season. There will not be an update next week due to the holiday.

Prices are at a 15 year low.  The lack of winter in the East is the dominate factor and the 8-14 forecast actually predicts temperatures to get warmer.  We have an abundance of supply and storage causing significant weakness in the near term prices.  If winter or until winter shows up in the East, prices are going to remain weak in the near term.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:               $1.788
Price of Gas 12-10-2015                                                                 $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                                   $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                                $2.191
Price of Gas 11/13/2015                                                                $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                                   $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                  $2.51

 

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.66 down $0.04 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.97 down $0.03 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64

Chicago CityGate for the month of Decemver $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

December

$3.67

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast


December 10, 2015

Natural gas prices continue to fall due to the lack of demand (nice weather).  January gas is trading right around $2.00/Dth on NYMEX and the weather forecast continues to call for above average temperatures for the Midwest and East Coast.  There is no bullish information in the market right now and therefore prices should continue to stay low.

Also in Energy news this week, Oil prices fell below $40 a barrel.  This was due to the oversupply of oil in the world markets and OPEC’s decision to keep producing oil at the same levels. 

Which leads me to the interesting articles of the week.  Both articles, one in the Denver Post and the other in the Wall Street Journal discussed the continued success of the Denver Julesburg Basin (Colorado) and Permian Basin (West Texas & Eastern New Mexico) producing regions.  Due to many reasons, these two fields continue to provide a rate of return to production companies and therefore these companies are continuing bring on new supplies out of these basins.  They are allocating their budgets to drill in these regions and not in other regions.    Therefore, if this continues it will create weakness in some areas and strength in others.  The most honest answer I can give here, I am not sure how this will impact Iowa if it continues.  The Permian is one of the supply basins for Northern Natural Gas (NNG), however it’s just one of many basins.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:              $2.025
Price of Gas 12/4/2015                                                                   $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                                $2.191
Price of Gas 11/13/2015                                                                $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                                   $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                  $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                  $2.554

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.70 down $0.04 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.00 down $0.01 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64

Chicago CityGate for the month of Decemver $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

December

$3.67

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast

 

December 4, 2015

New Utility (taken from the filing at the IUB) and First of the Month Prices.

 

The natural gas market has remained very stable over the last couple of weeks.  The main driver is the weather and weather is very mild right now.  Forecasts are calling for warm weather for the majority of the country.  Nothing in that forecasts should drive the price of gas one direction or the other.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (January) Nymex price of gas:              $2.17

Price of Gas 11/25/2015                                                                $2.191
Price of Gas 11/13/2015                                                                $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                                   $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                  $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                  $2.554

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.74 down $0.07 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.01 same as last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of December $2.32
NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64

Chicago CityGate for the month of Decemver $2.39
Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

December

$3.67

$4.442

$4.0645

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

 

NOAA’s December Forecast

 

 

November 24, 2015

The natural gas market is down from our last quote a week and half ago.   We have a record level of natural gas in storage and the weather has been mild.  We are expecting another injection this upcoming report setting another record for gas in the ground for this winter.  The short term forecast is for cold weather, however the 8-14 day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures for most of the country.  Demand is still weak in comparison to expectations.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (December) Nymex price of gas:        $2.191
Price of Gas 11/13/2015                                                                $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                                   $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                  $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                  $2.554

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.81 down $0.10 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.01 down $0.10 from last quote

 

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67

Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast

 


November 13, 2015

Not a lot going on this week, prices ended up equivalent to last week.  Some cold weather is forecast for the west, however the Midwest and East are above average.  If temperatures remain mild, short term prices should remain stable and possibly trend a bit lower. 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (December) Nymex price of gas:        $2.37
Price of Gas 11/6/2015                                                                   $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                  $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                  $2.554

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.91 unchanged from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.11 unchanged from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67

Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

 

NOAA’s 8-14 Day Forecast

 

November 6, 2015

New first of the month prices and utility costs on this update.  We are using the filed rates found for MidAmerican and will update if they change when MidAmerican actually posts them.

Market moved up a little this week with expectations of colder weather and a bullish storage report.  However, that storage report also showed that we tied the record for the most gas being stored for the upcoming heating season.

Enclosed is NOAA’s 30 day forecast.  As you can see the forecast is calling for Warmer than normal temperatures.  The forecast for precipitation is normal for November.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Following Months (December) Nymex price of gas:         $2.377        

Price of Gas 10/30/2015                                                                $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                   $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                   $2.554
Price of Gas 9/17/2015                                                                   $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                                               $2.91 up $0.05 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                                               $3.09 up $0.03 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of November $2.28
NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67

Chicago CityGate for the month of November $2.34
Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

November

$3.6592

$4.316

$4.0098

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

 

NOAA’s November forecast for the country.

 

October 30, 2015

Prices this week fell significantly on Monday closing out November very weak.  NYMEX settled for November at $2.03.  Basically this is a short term supply and demand situation that could be alleviated by a cold winter.  Unfortunately for producers we are expecting a mild winter across the northern and eastern states dampening heating demand.  Please reference the 90 weather forecasts included below.

I have listened to four analyst now and they are all lining up with their information:

1)      Supply growth has stagnated due to low prices.  Very difficult for producers to make money at $2 gas.

2)      Demand in the short term won’t provide the solution but in the medium to long term could outstrip production.

a.       Electric Generation from gas was about 4BCF/day greater this past summer than the previous year and could be as high as 8 BCF/day.

b.      Exports to Mexico and LNG.  Mexico exports increased a BCF a day year over year and LNG has a terminal coming on line in late 15/early 16 up to 2BCF/day of additional demand.

 

Therefore, the thought is that prices can stay low in the short term, however this is unsustainable and prices will increase in the spring and summer of next year. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (December) Nymex price of gas:         $2.32
Price of Gas 10/16/2015                                                                $2.427
Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                   $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                   $2.554
Price of Gas 9/17/2015                                                                   $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 16/17                                              $2.86 down $0.18 from last quote
Winter 17/18                                              $3.06

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of August $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

 

NOAA’s December-January-February forecast for the country

 

 
 

 

October 16, 2015

This week there was a large injection into Storage and the market responded by moving a bit lower.  None of the fundamentals have changed, production has remained strong and there isn’t a lot of demand right now.  The 8-14 day forecasts shows that we will be above average pretty much across the country. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:             $2.427

Price of Gas 10/9/2015                                                                   $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                   $2.554
Price of Gas 9/17/2015                                                                   $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.69 down $0.07 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.04 down $0.04 from last quote

 

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of August $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


October 9, 2015

Lots of new information this week, First of the Month Price and new Utility rates.

This week our commodities advisor provided a report discussing the natural gas market.  In his opinion the market is oversold and the risk to the downside is minimal at this point (the risk for a significant lower prices is minimal).  In addition, his short term prognostication is that prices will increase due to profit taking in the market.  On the fundamental side of the business, we are in an oversupply situation.  We are entering the winter with record level stockpiles, strong production and the expectation of an El Nino weather pattern.  However, this has been known for a while and there is no guarantee that temperatures will be mild this winter.  His long range forecasts is that next spring (February through April) will be a good time to start locking in fixed price gas for the next summer and next winter.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:             $2.51

Price of Gas 9/24/2015                                                                   $2.554
Price of Gas 9/17/2015                                                                   $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Price of Gas 8/27/2015                                                                   $2.64
Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.76 down $0.07 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.08 down $0.04 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of October $2.64
NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of October $2.70
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of August $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

October

$3.5237

$3.843

$3.9425

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 

September 25, 2015

Gas prices fell just a little bit this week and are approaching that important $2.50 barrier.  This spring it traded below $2.50 a couple of times and went higher each time the price got that low.   Also, I spoke with our outside commodities counsel who is a risk averse gentlemen.  His statement is that it’s a safe time to buy a fixed price. 

Next week, I will be traveling on Friday so there will be no report.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:           $2.554
Price of Gas 9/17/2015                                                                   $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Price of Gas 8/27/2015                                                                   $2.64
Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.83 down $0.04 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.12 down $0.02 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of August $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$3.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 

 

September 18, 2015

Just updated NYMEX and weather information this week.   Still trading in that range but approaching the lower end.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:           $2.614

Price of Gas 9/11/2015                                                                   $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Price of Gas 8/27/2015                                                                   $2.64
Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.87 down $0.08 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.14 down $0.08 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of August $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$3.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


September 11, 2015

New Utility Prices this month.  I also added first of the month Chicago for those locations in the Southeastern part of the state.

Not a lot of information this week.  Therefore, I thought I would give you a look at national supply and demand for natural gas.  The average daily production ending Sept 4th was 78.3 BCF/day.  That is up from last year approximately 4.2 BCF/day.  Production remains strong throughout the country even in this low price environment. 

Demand for the week ending Sept 4th averaged 67.5 BCF/day, up approximately 4.9 BCF/day.  Demand is a bit trickier than production to analyze in that weather plays such a major factor.  Whether, it is hotter or colder will significantly impact the amount of gas consumed.  That is why we pay attention to the weather as much as we do.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:              $2.695

Price of Gas 9/4/2015                                                                     $2.679

Price of Gas 8/27/2015                                                                   $2.64
Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.95 up $0.02 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.22 up $0.02 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 

Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.78
Chicago CityGate for the month of September $2.89

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

September

$3.59

$3.905

$3.97

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$3.45

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country


September 4, 2015

New First of the Month Price of Gas

This week Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration reported that they have overstated Oil production by 60,000 to 100,000 barrels a day this year.  Now the reality is that we still have a surplus in oil and it’s really not significant number (although the market jumped).  However it’s concerning because this is the data that all people use to determine supply and demand and it effects prices. 

The other interesting news this week, drilling in the Haynesville Shale (Louisiana & Texas) can drill for $1.75 a Dth.  Therefore technologies continue to lower costs for drilling.  This is good news for the consumer because production companies will continue to increase output given these numbers.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (October) Nymex price of gas:             $2.679

Price of Gas 8/27/2015                                                                   $2.64
Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Price of Gas 7/31/2015                                                                   $2.718

Price of Gas 7/14/2015                                                                   $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.93 down $0.01 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.20 up $0.02 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market

NNG Ventura for the month of September $2.67
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 
NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country.


August 27, 2015

Prices have fallen this week as the weather moderates and we continue to have strong production numbers.  Nothing has changed in the market to dictate a strong direction one way or the other.

Hurricane Danny didn’t amount to anything and now we are tracking Hurricane Erica.  The current projected path is to stay in the Atlantic and head up the coast of Florida.  Not a real threat and prices have acted accordingly.  In addition, there is a thought that Hurricane’s won’t have the same effect as they did in the past.  It is true that we are not as dependent upon the gulf for production, however there is still a lot of production down there.  We don’t know what will happen to prices until we get an event that disrupts that production.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (September) Nymex price of gas:       $2.64

Price of Gas 8/21/2015                                                                   $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Price of Gas 7/31/2015                                                                   $2.718

Price of Gas 7/14/2015                                                                   $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $2.94 down $0.07 from last quote
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.18 down $0.08 from last quote

Local First of the Month Market
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 
NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


August 21, 2015

The big news dominating the energy headlines this week have to deal with the oil surplus.  Prices have fallen to the mid $40’s for a barrel of oil.  As we have discussed before, companies are still drilling and therefore the supply glut continues.  It will be interesting to see how long that continues and if production and drilling does slow down how much it will impact the supply of natural gas. 

On the weather front, we are starting to get the long term looks at this winter.  The Farmers Almanac has called for another cold winter, meanwhile NOAA has called for a mild winter.  Also, we have our first Hurricane in the Atlantic.  Hurricane Danny is still in the middle of the Atlantic and right now there is no definitive forecasts to its projected path.  We will be keeping an eye on it and seeing if it heads into the gulf and affects gulf production.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (September) Nymex price of gas:       $2.71
Price of Gas 8/7/2015                                                                     $2.762

Price of Gas 7/31/2015                                                                   $2.718

Price of Gas 7/14/2015                                                                   $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Price of Gas 6/26/2015                                                                   $2.758

Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $3.01
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.26

Local First of the Month Market
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.79 – last update showed NBPL Vent at $2.83
NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


August 7, 2015

Lots of new information this week:

                Added feature of the Winter Strip
                New First of Month Prices
                New Utility Prices

 

Markets are still range bound with the increases and decreases due to the weather forecasts.  The Wall Street Journal ran an article today discussing the current oil production (thus natural gas production) situation.  Many companies are continuing to drill in this low cost environment due to increased efficiencies and they don’t believe that prices are going to get any better.  Although many of the production companies recorded a loss for the second quarter they continue to drill into a losing market.  You can only do that for so long, but the short term production continues to hold.

 

For those customers purchasing gas on MidAmerican they have concluded their annual review of the MMT costs.  The following changes will be in effect for the next 12 months:

Administrative Fee = $14.62 per meter per month (decrease from $14.63)

Swing Service Fee = $0.091 per Dth (increase from $0.084)

Weekend Service Rider = $0.035 per Dth (decrease from $0.074)

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (September) Nymex price of gas:       $2.762

Price of Gas 7/31/2015                                                                   $2.718

Price of Gas 7/14/2015                                                                   $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Price of Gas 6/26/2015                                                                   $2.758

Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60

Nymex Winter Strip – Straight average November through March.
Winter 15/16                                                               $3.07
Winter 16/17                                                               $3.31

Local First of the Month Market
NNG Ventura for the month of August: $2.83
NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

August

$3.45

$4.90

$4.65

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


July 31, 2015

Once again I am sounding like a broken record, we are range bound in gas prices right now.  Nothing really to indicate this week that we would break out of this one direction or the other.  Right now there really isn’t much to do as we will see what the end of the summer and hurricane season brings us.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:               $2.718

Price of Gas 7/14/2015                                                                   $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Price of Gas 6/26/2015                                                                   $2.758

Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60

NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country


July 17, 2015

Updated Utility Rates on this report.

We are still trapped in a sideways market meaning that there is no reason for it to go up or down.  A report this week talked about price spikes up based upon weather, however there is no follow through on that and prices should fall.

Also and El Nino is developing.  That means that we will have warmer temperatures in the North and NorthEast with colder temperatures in the West.  It will bear watching what is going on with the El Nino because the strength of it dictates what the weather patterns will be.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:                $2.88

Price of Gas 7/2/2015                                                                     $2.824

Price of Gas 6/26/2015                                                                   $2.758

Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60              

NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

July

$3.38

$4.62

$4.45

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


July 2, 2015

Please notice a new first of the month price for July, next week we will have a new Utility cost of gas. 

Natural gas prices eased up a bit this week.  Production does seem to be down a bit from the beginning of the year, nothing really significant though.  Demand has increased due to electric generation.  Even though supply is down a bit and demand has increased, we are still running a surplus of production.  Given these circumstance prices remain very stable. 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Following Months (August) Nymex price of gas:                $2.824

Price of Gas 6/27/2015                                                                     $2.758

Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60                 

NNG Ventura for the month of July: $2.68
NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


June 26, 2015

Prices traded within a short range and basically stayed the same as last week.  Not a lot of news this week, so I just updated the information below.

Next week look for new First of the Month Prices.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Following Months (JULY) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.754
Price of Gas 6/19/2015                                                                   $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60

Price of Gas 5/29/2015                                                                   $2.654

Price of Gas 5/22/2015                                                                   $2.914                 

Price of Gas 5/08/2015                                                                   $2.863                    

NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


June 19, 2015

Very uneventful week with natural gas prices, as prices were very stable. 

A number of articles came out this week about long range supply and demand of natural gas. 

  • The International Energy Agency called for an increase in long range demand (2014-2020) to grow at 2% per year due to low prices.
  • Natural Gas Supply Association is calling for both record demand and supply this summer.  However, supply outstrips demand and could cause downward pressure on prices.
  • Along those same lines, a large trading institution is calling for record storage levels at the end of the season due to this record supply.
  • However, the long range supply picture is decreasing and the strong year over year gains in production will dissipate by this fall.

To summarize all this information, in the short term, there is a lot of supply and prices are depressed with an opportunity to go lower.  However, in the long run this surplus will come back to equilibrium with cutbacks in production and strong demand.  The old adage remains true, the best cure for low prices is low prices.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Following Months (JULY) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.764
Price of Gas 6/12/2015                                                                   $2.80                 

 

NOAA's 8-14 day forecast for the country.


June 12, 2015

Please reference the Utility Chart – New Utility gas costs for the month of June.

A little bit of a run up in NYMEX this week.  It was strong both Monday and Tuesday and has since dropped off from those strong gains.  There has been no new fundamental information with regards to supply and demand that would dictate a strong move one direction or the other.  Technically the market hit a low last week and it bounced off of that number showing strength.  That said, then it technically hit a high and has shown the weakness that last three days of trading.

As one trader put it this week, “It’s hard to get short right now.”  That just means that prices are low, it’s only the middle of June and we could still get a hot spell that causes demand to jump.  So traders aren’t selling natural gas short in hopes of buying back at a lower price later.  Without any significant changes to the physical gas market, prices should continue to remain stable.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (JULY) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.80                 

Price of Gas 6/5/2015                                                                     $2.60

Price of Gas 5/29/2015                                                                   $2.654

Price of Gas 5/22/2015                                                                   $2.914                 

Price of Gas 5/08/2015                                                                   $2.863                    

Price of Gas 4/28/2015                                                                   $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

June

$3.40

$4.08

$3.37

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country.

 


June 5, 2015

New First of the Month Prices below.  They are listed as NNG Ventura.  Next week will list a new chart for the Utility prices.

Three pieces of information came out this week that were interesting and one directly effects prices in your region:

The first is the long range summer forecast predicting a mild summer in the Midwest and East.  West of the Rockies is expected to be hotter than normal.  This would indicate that gas demand will be down for the summer electric generation and should put downward pressure on prices.  At a minimum it should mean that prices should be relatively stable until further information is released.

The second piece of information this week is that the EPA concluded its study on fracking.  The study has taken over four years and who knows how much money, but they concluded that Fracking does not present a widespread risk to drinking water.  There have been isolated cases where drinking water has been contaminated, but that was due to human error.  In addition, there are some regulations around waste water removal and drilling casings (cement) that need to be in place, but otherwise safe.  Therefore, drilling will continue and it may even open up other areas where it has been prohibited.

The piece of information that effects prices in your region is a new interconnect into Chicago bringing gas from the East starting in July.  Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) was built years ago to move gas from the Rockies to the East.  Since then the drilling boom occurred in the East making this pipe underutilized.  Now they are turning that pipe around and delivering East gas into Illinois.  Simple economics dictates that prices should raise in the East and there should decrease in the Midwest.  Once this operational in July it will be interesting to see the actual impact, however this is good news for Iowa as it should put downward pressure on your prices.  We will keep you updated.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Following Months (JULY) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.60

Price of Gas 5/29/2015                                                                   $2.654

Price of Gas 5/22/2015                                                                   $2.914                 

Price of Gas 5/08/2015                                                                   $2.863                    

Price of Gas 4/28/2015                                                                   $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

NNG Ventura for the month of June: $2.70
NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country

 


May 29, 2015

Prices fell this week and it appears the trend has changed from upward price pressure to downward price pressure.  The market crossed a significant support line and has traded down ever since.  Last week we talked about the market moving up on technical strength, now the technical trading is pointing towards lower prices.   Quite frankly, there just isn’t a lot of demand right now as temperatures are very mild throughout the country. 

Another important piece of information, production is starting to decline.  This is due to the cut in exploration and production budgets in the energy sector.  We should expect to see these declines in both oil and gas through the summer.  I am hopeful that with the rebound of oil to the $60 range that these declines aren’t significant and can keep some stability to prices.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Following Months (JUNE) Nymex price of gas:                   $2.654

Price of Gas 5/22/2015                                                                   $2.914                 

 

Price of Gas 5/08/2015                                                                   $2.863                    

Price of Gas 4/28/2015                                                                   $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


May 22, 2015

The market has remained strong the last couple of weeks.  Reading about the strength in the market has been due to technical trading.  Technical trading is utilizing past price movements in a chart to try to determine future price movements.  Therefore if a price gets to a certain level it’s determined to be a buy signal and the same happens on the high side with sell signals.  Therefore the reason for the strength in the market is that prices reached a buy signal for technical traders and has ran from there.  Also, important to note regarding technical trading, hedge funds, speculators and banks utilize technical trading and that means the majority of the money in market trades based upon charts and lines.  Enclosed is a copy of an old chart, if you want a copy of a new chart – let me know 720-306-9531 and I can show you how to access on line.

 

saupload_naturalgas_03032009_chart1.png

 
 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (JUNE) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.914                 

Price of Gas 5/08/2015                                                                   $2.863                    

Price of Gas 4/28/2015                                                                   $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

 

NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


May 8, 2015

Prices ran this week and most people are attributing this to a technical rally.  Also, the market typically gains strength as we approach the demand months.   NOAA’s summer prediction is that we are hotter than normal in the west and average for most of the rest of the country.  The reason summer is important to the gas industry is the natural gas electric generation.  So the next few weeks will be interesting to see if the market can continue its strength from this past week. 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (JUNE) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.863                    

Price of Gas 4/28/2015                                                                   $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

 

NNG Ventura for the month of May:  $2.41
NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

May

$3.21

$2.48

$3.24

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


April 28, 2015

The market broke the $2.50 barrier yesterday but was unable to stay below $2.50.  A couple of weeks ago I talked about the next downward target on the market is $2.40, it appears the front month market will test that price.  Also this week the Energy Information Adminstration (a division within the Department of Energy) revised both their domestic future oil and gas production estimates downward.  This is due to the drop in oil prices and the slow down in drilling activity.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.517

Price of Gas 4/17/2015                                                                   $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

Price of Gas 3/20/2015                                                                   $2.784

Price of Gas 3/13/2015                                                                   $2.723

NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 17, 2015

The gas market continues to experience a surplus.  It wasn’t reflected in prices but the movement in prices didn’t change the fact that we are still trading in a sideways market.

One of the more interesting developments this week, 25 countries and large energy companies have come together to eliminate gas flaring by 2030.  It’s an interesting proposition and one that will require a lot of infrastructure being built.  It’s a practice that has gone on for years and it’s a terrible waste of a resource.  With government and private industry working together, hopefully this comes to fruition.   I may have posted this picture before, but it’s a satellite picture of the oil fields in North Dakota (circled area) that shows the gas flaring.  There shouldn’t be that much light in that part of the country.

 

Bakken satellite photo.jpg

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

 

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.631

Price of Gas 4/10/2015                                                                   $2.521

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

Price of Gas 3/20/2015                                                                   $2.784

Price of Gas 3/13/2015                                                                   $2.723

Price of Gas 2/27/2015                                                                   $2.734

NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 10, 2015

Please see the previous review by Dennis Delaughter about natural gas prices posted to the website.  Gas prices are trading sideways (not much up/not much down) and that is expected to continue.  The low price target is $2.40 and we are waiting to see about some fundamental weather information before there is a long range prediction in prices.   If you have any questions about the report, please call me at 720-306-9531 to discuss.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.507

Price of Gas 4/3/2015                                                                     $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

Price of Gas 3/20/2015                                                                   $2.784

Price of Gas 3/13/2015                                                                   $2.723

Price of Gas 2/27/2015                                                                   $2.734

NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


April 3, 2105

Lots of new information this week:  All the Iowa Utilities have filed their gas costs with the Iowa Utilities board and we have new market prices of gas.

 

I read an interesting article this week where T Boone Pickens was a member of a round table.  He was talking specifically about the oil markets and his opinion differed from conventional wisdom on oil prices.  The conventional wisdom on oil prices is that the United States is entering a period of stable prices that will remain relatively low.  Most people don’t believe that $40-$50 a barrel oil prices are sustainable, but that prices will get maybe $10-$20 a barrel higher for an extended period of time.  T Boone Pickens predicts that oil prices in two years will be $90 a barrel and his reasoning is the recent cut in production budgets and an inability to meet future demand given this cut.  He is heavily invested in oil and maybe just talking his book, however he has done well for himself so I thought worth noting.    Drilling for oil and natural gas often times goes hand in hand and therefore an increase in drilling for oil will lead to an increase in natural gas supply.  If oil is $90 a barrel there will be a lot of drilling.

 

Prices for Natural Gas were up this week, but still stable.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (May) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.699

Price of Gas 3/27/2015                                                                   $2.596

Price of Gas 3/20/2015                                                                   $2.784

Price of Gas 3/13/2015                                                                   $2.723

Price of Gas 2/27/2015                                                                   $2.734

NNG Ventura for the month of April: $2.54
NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

April

$3.33

$4.47

$4.50

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


March 27, 2015

This week’s storage report reported a net injection signaling that supply is still strong and demand is weak.  Typically, you don’t start putting gas into storage until April so this is a couple of weeks early.  The market responded by dropping almost $0.20 since last Friday. 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.596

Price of Gas 3/20/2014                                                                   $2.784

Price of Gas 3/13/2014                                                                   $2.723

Price of Gas 2/27/2014                                                                   $2.734

Price of Gas 2/20/2014                                                                    $2.94
Price of Gas 2/13/2014                                                                   $2.804

Price of Gas 2/6/2014                                                                     $2.579

NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


March 20, 2015

Market was up a little bit this week.  The prevailing thought for the increase was that the forecasts are for colder than normal temperatures.  

 

I looked at some long range summer forecasts both NOAA and the Farmers Almanac.  The reason this is important is all the new gas fired electric generation.  A hot dry summer would mean that gas demand would increase significantly and you would expect gas prices to increase. A long range forecast isn’t very reliable, however the natural gas traders are looking for any advantage they could find in the market. 

 

NOAA is attached, but they are calling for normal temperatures and precipitation for Iowa. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

The Farmers Alamanc is calling for “Sweltering and Normal Percipitation”. 

 

We will see what happens. 

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.793

Price of Gas 3/13/2014                                                                   $2.728

Price of Gas 2/27/2014                                                                   $2.732

Price of Gas 2/20/2014                                                                   $2.94
Price of Gas 2/13/2014                                                                   $2.804

Price of Gas 2/6/2014                                                                     $2.579

Price of Gas 1/30/2014                                                                   $2.674

Price of Gas  1/23/2014                                                                  $2.974

NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


March 13, 2015

We are entering the time of year that I start to sound like a broken record.  The extreme cold weather events have subsided and we are entering a time where weather related gas demand drops significantly.  Natural gas prices don’t have a strong direction one way or the other right now so I expect the market to trade sideways for the next couple of months.  The next weather related demand event will be this summer and we will see if that materializes.  If it is hot and dry then demand will increase for electric generation. 

 

Production is remaining strong right now.  However, we are reading about all the signs that effect production in the future; Exploration and Production budget cuts, layoffs and hiring freezes.  We will continue to watch production numbers this summer as there is quite a surplus that needs to get worked off right now.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Following Months (April) Nymex price of gas:                     $2.728

Price of Gas 2/27/2014                                                                   $2.732

Price of Gas 2/20/2014                                                                   $2.94
Price of Gas 2/13/2014                                                                   $2.804

Price of Gas 2/6/2014                                                                     $2.579

Price of Gas 1/30/2014                                                                   $2.674

Price of Gas  1/23/2014                                                                  $2.974

NNG Ventura for the month of March: $3.38
NNG Ventura for the month February: $3.01
NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

March

$4.21

$4.69

$4.68

February

$3.77

$4.69

$4.45

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

 

NOAA’s 8-14 day forecast for the country. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


January 30, 2015

This week the NYMEX broke through the $2.80 barrier and stayed below it through trading today.  There was some very bearish news as it relates to supply and demand this week that allowed the market to fall below that number and stay there.  The demand that the market was expecting didn’t materialize and the price reacted accordingly.  Over time February has been a very good month to buy gas for next winter.  Utilities buy a lot of gas in the summer and store it for winter demand.  Most of these storage fields require that the utilities move the gas out of the ground prior to the spring where they start to fill them again.  When it’s a mild winter, these utilities that haven’t used this gas either stop buying in the current market and pull the gas out of storage or in some cases they will sell the gas into the market.  This causes downward pressure on the price of natural gas and creates a buying opportunity for our customers.   

Enclosed is the latest 90 day temperature outlook.  NOAA is predicting normal weather through April.  Please see down below for the 8-14 weather forecast. If it comes true it should be some nice weather for Iowa.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information:

Following Months (March) Nymex price of gas:                    $2.672            

Price of Gas 1/23/2015                                                           $2.986
Price of Gas 1/16/2015                                                           $3.096
Price of Gas 1/9/2015                                                            $2.95
Price of Gas 12/19/2014                                                         $3.455
Price of Gas 12/12/2014                                                         $3.795
Price of Gas 12/5/2014                                                           $3.795
 

NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60
NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11
NNG Ventura for the month of November: $3.70
NNG Ventura for the month of October: $3.98

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$ 4.86

$ 5.29

$ 4.46

December

$ 5.66

$ 5.80

$ 5.38

November

$ 4.97

$ 5.39

$ 4.57

       

January 23, 2015

I am starting to sound like a broken record.  This week was just like last week in the natural gas markets with swings up and down.  One thing we have noticed is that around $2.80, there appears to be a lot of buying support as the market has tested that number 4 times and been unable to continue the downward trend.  A lot of commercial and industrial customers have been locking gas prices through 2016.  They like reducing their natural gas price risk and having a steady natural gas price for the next 23 months.

I also wanted to talk about Oil for a bit.  We currently have a 2 – 3 million barrel a day surplus of supply over demand, this is the reason we have had a significant decrease in the price of oil.  Shale production for both oil and gas has created a new world for energy prices.  Prices for oil shouldn’t go back up to the $100 a barrel range.  If prices start to increase again, we will see production pick up and thus keep a lid on the extreme prices we have seen in the past.  A couple of interesting numbers, Saudi Arabia can produce oil in the $20 range and still be profitable and due to technology American Shale can still be profitable in the $40 range.  So there is room for oil to drop further.

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information: 

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:  $3.096

Price as of 1/16/2015: $3.096

Price as of 1/9/2015: $2.95

Price as of 12/19/2014: $3.455

Price of Gas 12/12/2014: $3.795       

Price of Gas 12/5/2014: $3.795

Price of Gas 11/26/2014: $4.473

Price of Gas 11/21/2014: $4.319

Price of Gas 11/14/2014: $3.995                     

 

NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60

NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

NNG Ventura for the month of November: $3.70

NNG Ventura for the month of October:  $3.98
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

December

$5.66

$5.80

$5.38

November

$4.97

$5.39

$4.57

 

 

Contact Don Krattenmaker at 720-306-9531 with any questions or concerns.

 


January 19, 2015

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information: 

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:  $3.096

Price as of 1/9/2015: $2.95

Price as of 12/19/2014: $3.455

Price of Gas 12/12/2014: $3.795       

Price of Gas 12/5/2014: $3.795

Price of Gas 11/26/2014: $4.473

Price of Gas 11/21/2014: $4.319

Price of Gas 11/14/2014: $3.995                     

 

NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60

NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

NNG Ventura for the month of November: $3.70

NNG Ventura for the month of October:  $3.98
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

December

$5.66

$5.80

$5.38

November

$4.97

$5.39

$4.57

 

 

Contact Don Krattenmaker at 720-306-9531 with any questions or concerns.


January 12, 2015

For this first installment, the trend in natural gas price is lower.  The prevailing thought is that we have reached a point where prices will trade sideways (meaning up a little, down a little).  The reason gas prices have fallen significantly from last year is due to the surplus we are currently experiencing.  We have had a mild summer and until recently a mild winter.  In addition to the mild weather, production continued to climb in 2014 and we are now reaping the benefits of the lower costs due to this surplus.

To the weather, it’s projected to be cold for the next 6-10 days.  After this cold spell it is being projected to be above normal.   Longer range forecast 30-60-90 days do call for below normal temperatures in the MidWest.  All the publications, NOAA,  Accue Weather, Farmers Almanac and a couple of independent sources are in alignment for this forecasts.

 

NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) Information: 

Following Months (February) Nymex price of gas:  $2.95  

Price as of 12/19/2014: $3.455

Price of Gas 12/12/2014: $3.795       

Price of Gas 12/5/2014: $3.795

Price of Gas 11/26/2014: $4.473

Price of Gas 11/21/2014: $4.319

Price of Gas 11/14/2014: $3.995                     

 

NNG Ventura for the month of January: $3.60

NNG Ventura for the month of December: $5.11

NNG Ventura for the month of November: $3.70

NNG Ventura for the month of October:  $3.98
 

Utility Purchase Gas Adjustments (Utility Costs)

PGA Summary

MidAmerican

Alliant

Blackhills

January

$4.86

$5.29

$4.46

December

$5.66

$5.80

$5.38

November

$4.97

$5.39

$4.57

                                                                                                           

NOAA 3 Month Forecast Indicator

3 Month Outlook - 18 Dec 2014.PNG

Source

Contact Don Krattenmaker at 720-306-9531 with any questions or concerns.